Florida Decides Poll – Voters pick Romney to take on Obama

Your choice could determine who will take on President Obama this November, and it could be Mitt Romney’s race to lose.

A new exclusive News 13 Florida Decides Poll offers a better idea of who's in the best position to win the Florida primary on Tuesday and take on Obama.

• Jump to: Complete Poll Results

Newt Gingrich has seen his early lead vanish in Florida, now Mitt Romney appears poised to claim victory this Tuesday.

Romney leads Gingrich by 11 points, 42 to 31 percent. Rick Santorum is a distant third at 14 percent. Ron Paul, who has not campaigned in Florida, comes in with 6 percent. The X factor – 7 percent responded as undecided, meaning they haven’t picked who they'll vote for yet.

“Central Florida, the I-4 corridor, could be perhaps the most important group of voters in the country,” said News 13 Political Analyst Frank Torres.

“It’s a bellwether for how the rest of the state will go,” described News 13 Political Analyst Jeremiah Jaspon.

That poll also breaks down how Central Florida from Tampa to Daytona would vote. Those results show the race a little tighter.

Mitt Romney with a 7 point lead over Gingrich, 40 to 33 percent. The others are essentially the same when comparing I-4 to the rest of Florida.

Among Mitt Romney's biggest supporters are Florida Hispanics. Taking into account just those surveyed for our poll, 52 percent said they would vote for Romney compared to 28 percent for Gingrich. That’s a 24 point difference. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul poll in single digits.

Taking on Barack Obama

Who stands the best chance of beating President Obama in November?

A News 13 Florida Decides poll shows voters think Mitt Romney would beat Obama in a head to head match up if the election were held today.

After the GOP candidates finish targeting each other, they'll turn their attacks to the president.

“Florida alternates, red, blue, red, blue. Who knows what it will be this year,” said Torres.

Republicans badly want to win back the White House, and they’ll vote for the man they think stands the best chance against Obama.

Romney edges the president by 4 points, with 8 percent still undecided.

“It’s vital the president spend a lot of time here and makes sure the economy moves forward in Central Florida,” said Jaspon.

Newt Gingrich did not fare as well against Obama.
Poll results have him losing to the president by 9 points, 50 percent to 41 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

“They understand that if we get anyone but Romney, it will be a cakewalk for re-election for the president,” said political analyst Jaspon.

Why? Because Newt is high on himself. He is blunt and forward. If he is the nominee, he is a liability for Republicans of saying something that could turn off independent voters,” explained political analyst Torres.

What about the attacks being leveled by Gingrich and Romney against each other?
News 13’s poll asked what people thought about Newt Gingrich and his work as a consultant for Freddie Mac.

Fifty-two percent had a negative view compared to just 28 percent with a positive view, and 20 percent weren't sure.

Match that up against people’s view of Mitt Romney and his work as CEO of Bain Capital:

Seventy-four percent of people viewed that as positive and only 13 percent responded negatively. Thirteen percent weren’t sure.

“I think the rhetoric coming out of the Republicans right now is scaring away the independent voter,” said Torres.

Those so-called "cannibalistic" Republican attacks are serving the president well at this point.
When the GOP does finally select a nominee, the war for I-4 votes will be pivotal in the race for the White House.

The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters -- all likely to vote in the general election -- was conducted Jan. 24-26 for the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13. The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The margin of error overall is 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Results

QUESTION: Do you recognize the name _______________?
(If yes) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of _______________?

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don't Recognize
PRESIDENT
Barack Obama	43%	41%	16%	--%
Mitt Romney	39%	29%	30%	2%
Rick Santorum	25%	26%	42%	7%
Newt Gingrich	23%	53%	23%	1%
Ron Paul	21%	35%	38%	6%
500 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Mitt Romney	55%	14%	31%	--%
Rick Santorum	45%	12%	40%	3%
Newt Gingrich	41%	32%	26%	1%
Ron Paul	21%	35%	42%	2%

QUESTION: If the 2012 Republican presidential primary were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote?

	State	Men	Women	White	Hispanic	Early Voters
Mitt Romney	42%	38%	46%	41%	52%	47%
Newt Gingrich	31%	35%	27%	32%	28%	35%
Rick Santorum	14%	15%	13%	15%	7%	12%
Ron Paul	6%	8%	4%	6%	3%	6%
Undecided	7%	4%	10%	6%	10	--
	State	North FL	Central FL	Tampa Bay	Southwest FL	Southeast FL
Mitt Romney	42%	36%	40%	46%	39%	52%
Newt Gingrich	31%	31%	33%	30%	33%	26%
Rick Santorum	14%	17%	15%	15%	12%	10%
Ron Paul	6%	7%	5%	5%	6%	8%
Undecided	7	9%	7%	4%	10%	4%

QUESTION: In general, do you have a positive view or a negative view regarding Mitt Romney's business background at Bain Capital, the private equity, venture capital and investment firm he co-founded and worked at from 1984 to 1999?

POSITIVE	74%
NEGATIVE	13%
NOT SURE	13%

QUESTION: In general, do you have a positive view or a negative view regarding Newt Gingrich's work as a consultant for Freddie Mac, a mortgage loan guarantee firm that is backed by the federal government?

POSITIVE	28%
NEGATIVE	52%
NOT SURE	20%

QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Mitt Romney, the Republican?

	Obama	Romney	Undecided
STATE	44%	48%	8%
REGION	Obama	Romney	Undecided
North Florida	36%	57%	7%
Central Florida	42%	49%	9%
Tampa Bay	43%	48%	9%
Southwest Florida	39%	54%	7%
Southeast Florida	53%	39%	8%
SEX	Obama	Romney	Undecided
Men	37%	56%	7%
Women	50%	41%	9%
RACE	Obama	Romney	Undecided
White	37%	55%	8%
Black	91%	4%	5%
Hispanic	37%	53%	10%
PARTY	Obama	Romney	Undecided
Democrat	77%	15%	8%
Republican	7%	87%	6%
Independent	45%	42%	13%

QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Newt Gingrich, the Republican?

	Obama	Gingrich	Undecided
STATE	50%	41%	9%
REGION	Obama	Gingrich	Undecided
North Florida	41%	53%	6%
Central Florida	45%	43%	12%
Tampa Bay	50%	39%	11%
Southwest Florida	41%	50%	9%
Southeast Florida	63%	29%	8%
SEX	Obama	Gingrich	Undecided
Men	44%	46%	10%
Women	56%	36%	8%
RACE	Obama	Gingrich	Undecided
White	43%	47%	10%
Black	95%	2%	3%
Hispanic	43%	45%	12%
PARTY	Obama	Gingrich	Undecided
Democrat	83%	8%	9%
Republican	13%	77%	10%
Independent	51%	37%	12%

QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Rick Santorum, the Republican?

	Obama	Santorum	Undecided
STATE	50%	39%	11%
REGION	Obama	Santorum	Undecided
North Florida	41%	47%	12%
Central Florida	46%	43%	11%
Tampa Bay	52%	37%	11%
Southwest Florida	44%	45%	11%
Southeast Florida	59%	31%	10%
SEX	Obama	Santorum	Undecided
Men	42%	45%	13%
Women	57%	34%	9%
RACE	Obama	Santorum	Undecided
White	42%	45%	13%
Black	95%	4%	1%
Hispanic	50%	42%	8%
PARTY	Obama	Santorum	Undecided
Democrat	81%	13%	6%
Republican	13%	69%	18%
Independent	54%	36%	10%

QUESTION: In general, do you have a positive view or a negative view regarding Mitt romney's business background at Bain Capital, the private equity, venture capital and investment firm he co-founded and worded at from 1984 to 1999?

	Positive	Negative	Not Sure
STATE	46%	30%	24%
REGION	Positive	Negative	Not Sure
North Florida	56%	22%	22%
Central Florida	48%	31%	21%
Tampa Bay	47%	32%	21%
Southwest Florida	52%	27%	21%
Southeast Florida	35%	35%	30%
SEX	Positive	Negative	Not Sure
Men	53%	27%	20%
Women	39%	33%	28%
RACE	Positive	Negative	Not Sure
White	52%	26%	22%
Black	19%	43%	38%
Hispanic	42%	37%	21%
PARTY	Positive	Negative	Not Sure
Democrat	16%	52%	32%
Republican	80%	6%	14%
Independent	53%	32%	25%

QUESTION: In general, do you have a positive view or a negative view regarding Newt Gingrich's work as a consultant for Freddi Mac, a mortgage loan guarantee firm that is backed by the federal government?

	Positive	Negative	Not Sure
STATE	17%	65%	18%
REGION	Positive	Negative	Not Sure
North Florida	17%	63%	20%
Central Florida	22%	60%	18%
Tampa Bay	19%	66%	15%
Southwest Florida	28%	55%	17%
Southeast Florida	9%	72%	19%
SEX	Positive	Negative	Not Sure
Men	21%	59%	20%
Women	13%	71%	16%
RACE	Positive	Negative	Not Sure
White	19%	62%	19%
Black	5%	81%	14%
Hispanic	16%	65%	19%
PARTY	Positive	Negative	Not Sure
Democrat	11%	73%	16%
Republican	24%	53%	23%
Independent	15%	74%	11%