Earl churns northwestward, Fiona slows slightly

ORLANDO -- 

Hurricane Earl is barreling toward the U.S. coast as a powerful Category 4 storm after battering the northeastern Caribbean.

Earl is forecast to potentially brush the U.S. East Coast late Thursday, before curving back out to sea, potentially swiping New England or far-eastern Canada. The U.S. National Hurricane Center warns coastal residents from North Carolina to Maine to watch the storm closely.

The Hurricane Center says it's too early to say what effect Earl would have in the U.S., but warned it could at least kick up dangerous rip currents. A surfer died in Florida and a Maryland swimmer had been missing since Saturday in waves spawned by former Hurricane Danielle, which weakened to a tropical storm Monday far out in the north Atlantic.

Hurricane Earl: Latest advisory

Watches and warnings

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

• north of Surf City, N.C. to the North Carolina, Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

• Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

• Southeastern Bahamas
• Cape Fear to Surf City, N.C.

Interests from Virginia northward to New England should monitor the progress of Earl.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook

At 2 a.m., the center of Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 23.5 north, longitude 70.7 west.

Earl is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph. This general motion is expected to continue on Wednesday with a gradual turn to the north-northwest thereafter. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane will be passing well east and northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight and northeast of the Bahamas tomorrow.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph with higher gusts.  Earl is a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.  Little change in strength is expected through Wednesday.
 
Earl is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles. NOAA buoy 41046 recently reported sustained winds of 72 mph, with gusts to 85 mph.
 
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 942 mb.

Hazards affecting land

Winds: Tropical storm conditions are probably occurring in the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos Islands.  Weather conditions will likely improve in these islands today.

Storm surge: Above normal tides, accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves, are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this morning.

Rainfall: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected for the southeastern Bahamas and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Next advisory

• Next complete advisory: 5 a.m.

Tropical Storm Fiona: Latest advisory

Watches and warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

• St. Martin 
• St. Barthelemy 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

• Antigua
• Barbuda
• Montserrat
• St. Kitts
• Nevis
• Anguilla
• St. Maarten
• Saba
• St. Eustatius

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Fiona.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook

At 2 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 17.2 north, longitude 60.1 west.

Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph. This general motion is expected to continue to today. A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to pass over or just north of the northern Leeward Islands later this morning and afternoon.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours with gradual weakening thereafter.
 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles, mainly northeast through southeast of the center.
 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.

Hazards affecting land

Wind: Tropical storm conditions could spread over portions of the northern Leeward Islands by later this morning and early afternoon.

Next advisory

• Next complete advisory: 5 a.m.