ORLANDO-- Ida is now moving through the southern Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 storm with winds near 105 mph.
It will continue on a general north-northwest path over the next 24 hours likely maintaining or slightly increasing its wind speed.
On Tuesday, as it approaches the Central Gulf Coast, Ida will begin to weaken as it interacts with strong wind shear and cooler waters.
At this point, Ida will start to lose some of its tropical characteristics as it moves onshore somewhere near the Mississippi, Alabama or western Florida Panhandle coastline.
Landfall will likely occur Tuesday morning based on the latest model estimates. As a front moves in from the west, Ida will either move due east or northeast.
Both of these scenarios should keep the bulk of Ida’s winds to our north. We do expect to see our rain chances increase as Ida combines with a frontal boundary to bring scattered showers to the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.
National Hurricane Center forecast tracks often deviate from advisory to advisory. It’s important to keep up to date with the latest forecast track advisories which are issued every six hours.
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Florida EOC Activated
In preparation of Hurricane Ida, the Florida Emergency Operations Center was partially activated Sunday.
Emergency management officials raised the EOC alert level.
Monday morning, officials will meet to prepare for the arrival of Ida.
EOC teams will be focusing on logistics for what could be a Panhandle landfall on Tuesday or Wednesday.
The state is predicting storm tide values of 6-9 feet in Franklin and Gulf counties (just east of Panama City), and significant rainfall could cause coastal flooding.
Tracking Ida: 10 p.m. Update
Location: 23.7 N, 86.7 W
Distance from mouth of Mississippi River: 400 miles SSE
Distance from Orlando: 468 miles SW
Max Wind Speed: 105 mph
Movement: 14 mph NW
Pressure: 979 mb
Hurricane Warning issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast.
At 10 p.m. EST, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast from Pascagoula Mississippi eastward to Indian Pass Florida. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 10 p.m., a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the northern Gulf Coast from Grand Isle Louisiana eastward to west of Pascagoula Mississippi, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.
At 10 p.m., a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast from east of Indian Pass to Aucilla River Florida.
At 10 p.m. EST, the government of Cuba has discontinued all watches and warnings for Cuba.
At 10 p.m. EST, the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 23.7 north, longitude 86.7 west or about 400 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Ida is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. A turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed are expected during the next 24 hours, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday night. On the forecast track, Ida is expected to cross the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday and approach the northern Gulf Coast Monday night or early Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Ida is a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Gradual weakening is forecast, but Ida is expected to remain a hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb or 28.91 inches.
Ida is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over portions of western Cuba...with isolated maximum storm total amounts of 8 inches possible.
Rains will be increasing well in advance of Ida across the central and eastern Gulf Coast, but will become steadier and heavier by Monday into Tuesday. Total storm accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches will be possible through Tuesday from the central and eastern Gulf Coast northward into the eastern portions of the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians.
A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 a.m. EST, followed by the next complete advisory at 4 a.m. EST.
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