WASHINGTON(AP)
With the racially tinged Democratic race drawing to an awkward
close, Barack Obama and John McCain face the challenge of winning
over "Hillary Democrats" _ the white, working-class
voters who favored the former first lady over Obama's historic
candidacy.
Obama and McCain clearly have set their sights on each other, a
recognition of the long odds Clinton faces in trying to capture the
Democratic presidential nomination. The McCain campaign figures
some of her supporters might be up for grabs and won't
necessarily vote Democratic in the general election in
November.
"I've been saying for a year that you never count a
Clinton out, but now people are laughing at me so I guess I've
got to stop," McCain strategist Charlie Black said Friday. But
if you look at the blue-collar Democratic votes that Mrs.
Clinton's been getting and then look at their opinions of Obama
in these public polls, there's clearly an opportunity for
McCain."
Clinton won more than two-thirds of the white voters without
college degrees in the last three primaries _ Pennsylvania, North
Carolina and Indiana _ according to exit polls conducted for The
Associated Press and the television networks. When those Clinton
supporters were asked who they would vote for in an Obama-McCain
matchup, just fewer than half said they would support Obama. Three
in 10 said they would vote for McCain and the rest said they
wouldn't vote for either.
Shrugging off those numbers, Obama spokesman Bill Burton
expressed confidence that Democratic voters will unite behind the
nominee. He argued that the Illinois senator also would attract
"droves of independent voters and disaffected Republicans that
he has already won over all across the country."
Clinton is trying to use her advantage with white working-class
voters to persuade party leaders to disregard Obama's overall
advantage at the ballot and nominate her. Her campaign circulated a
letter Friday from 16 members of Congress arguing she's the
strongest candidate to have at the top of the ticket in the fall
because she has won most rural and suburban congressional swing
districts.
Clinton told USA Today in an article published Thursday that AP
exit polls "found how Senator Obama's support among
working, hardworking Americans, white Americans, is weakening
again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college
were supporting me."
"There's a pattern emerging here," she said.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres said that based on focus groups
he has conducted in swing states, including Missouri, Michigan and
Florida, Clinton's claim that she would do better than Obama
with blue-collar white voters is believable.
He said those voters support her because of the prosperous
economic times they experienced when her husband was president. He
also said they are uncomfortable with Obama because of his
relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who created a furor
with his divisive comments, and questions about Obama's
patriotism.
"It's cultural," Ayres said.
The older those voters are, the more likely they are to support
Clinton. Whites without college degrees under 30 support Obama,
although to a lesser extent than the college educated.
In the general election, Democrats trying to attract white,
working-class voters immediately start at a disadvantage. The
party's presidential candidates have not won a majority of
white voters in more than three decades, according to exit polls
over the years. The only Democrat to come close was Bill Clinton,
who lost to Bob Dole among whites by 3 percentage points in 1996
and to President George H.W. Bush by 1 point in 1992.
This year, whites who do not have college degrees lean slightly
toward the GOP, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News survey
conducted last month, with 43 percent calling themselves
Republicans and 38 percent considering themselves Democrats.
Ruy Teixeira, author of "America's Forgotten Majority:
Why the White Working Class Still Matters," said Democrats
have a better chance of winning more votes from this demographic
this year because of the troubled economy, the war in Iraq and
rising health care costs and millions who remain uninsured.
"These are voters who haven't been doing too well
throughout the whole Bush administration and now are really sort of
beside themselves, don't have a lot of faith in the Republican
brand of economic management," said Teixeira, a Democrat not
supporting either Obama or Clinton. "The question is can
McCain push other issues in such a way as to prevent the Democrats
from taking advantage of their built-in advantage on the issues
that are going to be current in this election."
Black said if McCain is to win over any "Hillary
Democrats," he'll have to work for them and earn them, and
he plans to do that.
"I think you'll see particularly his economic message
and his health care message in very populous terms, and that
he'll be talking to and meeting with people in that
category," Black said. "A lot of these voters are
conservative. A lot of them believe in a strong national
defense."
They also believe in their guns, said strategist Mudcat Sanders,
who advises Democrats on rural issues.
"He's got one thing he's got to do and he's got
to say it clearly. He's got to say, `I'm not going to take
anybody's gun,'" Sanders said. Obama has done that at
times, such as when he was campaigning for Western voters.
"It's not a litmus test. It shows you are in line with the
culture."
Sanders said if Obama does that and spends time getting to know
rural voters, he can win them over.
"He's got to embrace the culture is what he's got
to do," Sanders said. "The boy's IQ looks like Pete
Rose's liftime batting average. It's off the charts. But at
the same token, that comes off to us as big city. The big city
thing John Kerry never could shake, I think, is Obama's problem
right now. But I think he can get those voters and lot more if he
just gets out there among the people so they can get to know
him."
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Associated Press Writer Alan Fram contributed to this
report.
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EDITOR'S NOTE: Nedra Pickler has covered presidential
politics for The Associated Press since 2002.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.