PALO ALTO, Calif.(AP)
As Facebook.com's mastermind, Mark Zuckerberg is sitting on
a potential gold mine that could make him the next Silicon Valley
whiz kid to strike it rich.
But the 22-year-old founder of the Internet's second largest
social-networking site also could turn into the next poster boy for
missed opportunities if he waits too long to cash in on Facebook
Inc., which is expected to generate revenue of more than $100
million this year. The bright outlook is one reason Zuckerberg felt
justified spurning several takeover bids last year, including a $1
billion offer from Yahoo Inc.
"We clearly have a bias toward building than selling,"
Zuckerberg said in a recent interview. "We think there is a
lot more to unlock here."
The build-or-sell dilemma facing Zuckerberg is becoming more
common among the precocious entrepreneurs immersed in the latest
Internet craze, a communal concept of content-sharing that has been
dubbed "Web 2.0."
Besides Facebook, other Web 2.0 startups frequently mentioned as
prime takeover targets include online video site Metacafe Inc. and
Photobucket Inc., which has emerged as one of the Internet's
busiest destinations by hosting personal videos and photos that are
routinely linked to top social-networking sites like MySpace and
Facebook.
These sites find themselves at a critical juncture reached
several years ago by the Internet's first big social-networking
site, Friendster.com, which chose to stay independent instead of
selling. That decision is now regarded as one of Silicon
Valley's biggest blunders.
Web 2.0 startups have emerged as hot commodities because they
are drawing more people away from television, newspapers and other
media traditionally used for advertising. Online video channels and
social networks, a catchall phrase attached to sites that enable
people with common interests to connect and deepen their bonds, are
particularly hot.
Deep-pocketed companies are now angling for a piece of the Web
2.0 action _ a quest that already has yielded a couple big
jackpots, helping to propel the sales prices of startups to their
highest levels since the dot-com boom.
News Corp. paid $580 million in 2005 to buy MySpace, the largest
social-networking site, and Google Inc. snapped up video-sharing
pioneer YouTube Inc. for $1.76 billion late last year.
"I'm surprised a lot more companies haven't already
been bought," said Reid Hoffman, a veteran Silicon Valley
executive who has invested in many startups, including Facebook.
"My hunch is the deals are only going to get more expensive in
2008 and 2009."
In 2006, the average price paid for a startup funded by venture
capitalists rose 19 percent to $114 million. That was the highest
amount since the dot-com frenzy of 2000 when the average price of
venture-backed startups peaked at $337 million, according to data
from Thomson Financial and the National Venture Capital
Association.
If the dealmaking market continues to heat up, Zuckerberg will
end up looking smart for rebuffing Yahoo and other suitors that
included Microsoft Corp. and Viacom Inc.
Assuming Facebook hits its financial targets, the Palo
Alto-based company should be able to command a sales price well
above $1 billion or pursue an even more lucrative initial public
offering of stock in the tradition of Google, Yahoo Inc., eBay Inc.
and Amazon.com Inc. _ a group of Internet icons now worth a
combined $250 billion.
A Facebook sale or IPO is bound to happen eventually so the
startup's early investors, consisting mostly of venture
capitalists, can realize some profits. Facebook has raised about
$38.5 million since Zuckerberg started the site in 2004 while he
was still a sophomore at Harvard University.
Zuckerberg has some flexibility in deciding when to cash out
because Facebook already is profitable.
An IPO or sale will "make sense at some point for the
company, but I never think that's the goal," said
Zuckerberg, who is believed to control nearly one-third of
Facebook's stock. "The goal is to ... continue introducing
certain revolutionary products that push us to the next
level."
Marc Andreessen, who made a fortune during his 20s as co-founder
of Web browser pioneer Netscape Communications, is among those who
believe Facebook is going to become even more valuable during the
next year or two.
"Facebook is doing the smart thing. If you are in a big
market like social networking, you are usually better off waiting
(to sell)," said Andreessen, who is now chief technology
officer for another social-networking startup, Ning Inc. Had
MySpace remained independent, it would probably be worth $5 billion
now, Andreessen estimated.
Should Facebook stumble, it may some day be suffering the same
pangs of regret tormenting Friendster Inc., which turned down a
takeover bid from Google in 2003 when it reigned as Internet's
hottest social-networking site.
Had that offer been accepted, Friendster founder Jonathan Abrams
and a small group of early investors reportedly would have received
$30 million in Google stock that would have been worth about $1
billion today.
Abrams left Friendster in 2004 after a falling out with the
company's venture capitalists. Now working on its fourth chief
executive since Abrams' departure, Friendster so far hasn't
been able to recapture the buzz that once made it a prized
commodity.
In January, Friendster attracted just under 1.3 million U.S.
visitors, leaving it far behind MySpace (61.5 million visitors),
Facebook (19 million visitors) as well as several relative
newcomers to social networking like Bebo.com, MyYearbook.com and
Hi5.com, according to data from comScore Media Metrix.
Other tales of woe are bound to emerge after the latest
dealmaking cycle winds down, predicted Ken Marlin, a technology
investment banker in New York.
"The world is filled with companies that waited too long to
sell and missed their window of opportunity," he said.
"We think this land grab (on the Internet) probably will only
last another year or two."
Palo Alto-based Metacafe fielded a takeover offer shortly after
Google and YouTube first got together in October before deciding to
remain independent, said co-founder Arik Czerniak. "We are 100
percent committed to building the business ourselves," he
said.
Toward that end, Czerniak recently turned over the chief
executive reins to Erick Hachenburg, a former executive for video
game-maker Electronic Arts Inc. Czerniak remains an executive and
major shareholder at Metacafe.
Denver-based Photobucket also prefers to remain independent as
it strives to nearly double its registered users to 60 million by
the end of this year, said Alex Welch, who has raised about $15
million in venture capital since co-founding the site in 2003.
Photobucket's 35 million members currently upload about 7
million photos and 35,000 videos per day _ second only to YouTube
and MySpace.
Other trendy Web sites that could elicit takeover interest
include: Linden Research Inc., the maker of the virtual world
"Second Life"; Digg Inc., which displays news stories
based on the recommendations of readers; and Slide Inc., a
photo-sharing site launched by Max Levchin, who already struck it
rich as a co-founder of PayPal Inc., an online payment service
bought by eBay Inc. for $1.5 billion in 2002.
But no startup is stirring more takeover chatter than Facebook,
which began as a site exclusively for college students before
opening up to high school students in 2005 and finally accepting
all comers last fall.
The site now has nearly 17 million registered users, most of
whom fall into the under-35 demographic prized by advertisers. And
Facebook gives advertisers plenty of marketing opportunities
because its users churn through about 1 billion Web pages per
day.
Facebook struck its first major financial partnership last
summer with Microsoft, which reportedly guaranteed to deliver about
$200 million in ad revenue through 2008. Zuckerberg said the
advertising contract with Microsoft recently had been extended
through 2011. Terms of the extension haven't been
disclosed.
Although he dropped out of Harvard in 2004 to move Facebook to
Silicon Valley, Zuckerberg still leads the ascetic lifestyle of a
college student even as he runs a business with 200 employees.
Zuckerberg says he keeps little more than a mattress in his
apartment, which is located just a few blocks away from
Facebook's office. The proximity allows him to walk to work
every day, usually wearing Adidas sandals ideally suited for
lounging around a campus dorm.
Being comfortable is important to Zuckerberg because, like so
many of the Silicon Valley prodigies before him, he tends to spend
long hours at the office plotting strategy.
"For now, I just think it's very important to have a
good sense of direction about where we are going," he
said.
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