Come next month, Florida lawmakers begin trimming more than a billion dollars from the state budget. Everything is fair game, including education.
The writing's on the chalkboard. Like they teach you in economics class, less income means less money to spend. With tax revenue down, Florida's schools are bracing for a hit.
Ever the optimist, Governor Charlie Crist has a prediction. "My hope is that we will not have to go as deep as some may think. My desire is that we do not have to cut any essential services, and i'm confident that will be born out.:
Still, Tuesday, the State Board of Education began taking a cold look at what might happen if cuts go deeper than expected.
Schools would have to put off buying textbooks. Teacher bonuses would be scaled back and bus routes could be cancelled.
Plus, at the university level, enrollment would be frozen and faculty would be laid off.
However, that's with a ten percent cut, which Education Commissioner Jeanine Blomberg argues is a big stretch. "Ten percent is not the shortfall. Right now, we're working with a four percent figure in terms and that's where we've worked very closely with districts to identify at this point a reserve of four percent."
Despite the relatively rosy outlook, not everyone's so sure students won't feel the pinch, not with an education budget they argue is already bare-bones.
State House Minority Leader Dan Gelber, Miami Beach, said even the minimum cuts, like reducing office staff, could be the tipping point that throws public education into turmoil. "My hope is that they hold education harmless. I mean, I hope they do, but honestly, if you look at Florida's per capita spending, we're next-to-last in the nation. We obviously haven't been holding education harmless in our good years. So i'm not sure you can expect them to hold us harmless now."
However, that's when economics becomes politics and the real numbers are hashed out.