MEXICO CITY(AP)
Sitting in a Mexico City office, dressed in a pressed white
shirt, Gerardo Sanchez seems a world away from his herds of goats
and fields of beans.
But he's no poster boy for the new world agricultural order,
in which peasants are supposed to leave their unproductive farms
and strive for middle-class prosperity while food production is
left to agribusiness in the countries that farm most cheaply and
efficiently.
Sanchez works for the National Campesino Federation, a lobbying
group for small farmers that has been active lately in protests
against the rising price of food, notably a doubling of the price
of tortillas. Here, NAFTA and globalization are dirty words.
Around the world, governments are trying every play in their
books to stave off food riots _ sending troops to hand out food in
slums, ordering sweeping wage increases, banning grain exports and
suspending futures trading. The United States is promising millions
in emergency food aid.
But many experts call these Band-Aid solutions, saying
what's needed is a radical rethink of how the world gets its
food.
However, they're deeply divided about which way to go.
Some would in effect reverse the fundamentals by investing
massively in small farmers, instead of letting them sink in a
free-trade world. That would be very different from what the U.S.
has long been evangelizing _ take uncompetitive food producers off
the land and put them in new jobs with paychecks that would buy
them cheap food, efficiently farmed.
Others argue that the problem is not that trade is too free, but
that it should be freer. U.S. and European farm subsidies are bad
enough, they say, and things will only worsen if the present crisis
triggers more restrictions.
Those at the sharp end of rising prices feel like victims of a
bait-and-switch maneuver _ when they quit the land, they were
promised food would get cheaper, and now it's costlier.
"Not only are farmers not growing food, but we are going
hungry because we can't afford the foreign food that drove us
off our farms," said Mario Aguila, 48, who left his farm in
Oaxaca state because he could no longer support his family.
Aguila now sweeps floors in a Mexico City mall and marched in
last year's protests against tortilla price rises.
The pain inflicted on Mexican farmers by NAFTA, the North
American Free Trade Agreement, was supposed to be offset by cheap
grains for consumers, said Jeff Faux of the Washington-based
Economic Policy Institute. "But when the U.S. Congress
realized the potential of ethanol, corn was diverted there and
Mexico was left high and dry," Faux said. "The corn
turned out to be not that cheap."
The campesino federation estimates 200,000 Mexicans a year have
fled the countryside for the city or the United States since NAFTA
was launched in 1994.
World Bank chief Robert Zoellick, a former U.S. trade
representative, defended trade pacts and said they serve to lower
world food prices, not cause them to increase.
"NAFTA is one of the reasons prices are not higher,"
Zoellick said Wednesday at a Mexico City news conference.
There are those who say it's not free trade that's to
blame but the sudden seismic shift in the global economy _
ballooning oil prices, a biofuel boom that is gobbling up farmland,
and a voracious Chinese market for food. Get used to it, they say _
the era of cheap food is over.
But Tyler Cowen, a professor of economics at George Mason
University, recalls that the last big food price increase, in the
1970s, was followed by agricultural advances known as the
"green revolution" that hugely increased the supply and
brought down costs, and "If we don't mess this up we can
expect the same today."
However, he worries that U.S. and European Union farm subsidies
and tariffs, plus grain export bans and taxes triggered by the
latest crisis, will make things worse.
Meanwhile, rice alone has more than tripled in price since
January. Corn, wheat and other staples also have soared beyond the
ability of millions to pay for a healthy diet.
Some blame price inflation on speculative trading of futures _
contracts to buy or sell grains, metals, oil and other commodities
at a set price on a future date.
India on Thursday suspended futures trading in four major
commodities, including soybean oil, chick peas and potatoes, in a
bid to tame rising inflation driven largely by the soaring cost of
food.
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization estimates 820 million
people go hungry in the developing world, and Zoellick says the
crisis could force as many as 100 million people deeper into
poverty.
Despite calls for investment in farming, many governments seem
stuck in crisis mode.
Deadly riots have broken out from Bangladesh to Egypt to Burkina
Faso. In Haiti, they cost the prime minister his job. At least 34
countries have seen protests in recent months, according to the
U.N.'s World Food Program.
"Rice fever" has led nations in Asia to restrict
exports and subsidize locally grown rice. Some leaders in Latin
America are subsidizing food or placing punitive export taxes on
food commodities to control inflation.
So how does the world get out of this mess?
U.N. agencies recommend truly leveling the playing field by
cutting subsidies to huge agricultural companies, ending export
bans, lowering tariffs and increasing investment in small-scale
agriculture, one farm at a time.
"This could be a window of opportunity for governments to
relaunch the small-farming sector and traditional farming,"
said Fernando Soto, the FAO's policy chief for Latin America
and the Caribbean.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon says a "green
revolution" in Africa, fueled by new techniques and
agricultural investment, could double African food production in
just a few years for "a relatively modest" $8 billion to
$10 billion a year.
The U.S. is already the world's largest provider of food aid
_ $2.1 billion last year _ and Bush has asked Congress to approve
an extra $770 million in response to the crisis.
But the world can't donate itself out of this crisis, said
Paul Polak, founder of International Development Enterprises, an
aid organization that says it has helped 17 million small farmers
escape poverty by selling them low-cost technology such as
water-saving drip irrigation systems and foot-powered water
pumps.
Polak says of the world's 525 million farms, 450 million are
less than five acres, with the poorest working a single acre or
less. Modern methods _ especially in irrigation and crop rotation _
won't work well there, he said.
"We need a revolution in small-plot agriculture to allow
farmers to grow the food they need to eat and to grow high-value
crops they can sell on the market to lift themselves out of
poverty," Polak said.
Cowen says the idea is good, but points to Brazil, which has
made great strides in strengthening its food security by allowing
its farms to get larger and more corporate.
"Small farms," he says, "are a sign that your
agriculture is very inefficient."
___
Associated Press writers contributing to this report included
Katherine Corcoran in Mexico City; Parveen Ahmed in Dhaka,
Bangladesh; Leslie Josephs in Lima, Peru; Ben Fox in San Juan,
Puerto Rico; Paul Alexander in Manila, Philippines; Marjorie Olster
in Cairo, Egypt, and Matthew Rosenberg in New Dehli, India.
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